Tech & AI
Strategy
Briefing
Louis Fourteen "Serendipity" AI roadmap. CRM foundation required. CHF 1.14M AI investment over 36 months. Key decisions needed.
"Data is the moat, not AI. Everyone will have AI. Not everyone will have the data to make it useful. The CRM is not a tool—it's our future valuation multiplier."
Organizational Alignment
Industry Attractiveness
Tech Blockers for Scale
Infrastructure (Critical)
- ❌ CRM misconfigured
- ❌ No WebApp
- ❌ No AI capability
- ❌ No data structure
Organization (Needed)
- ⏳ CDO/Tech Lead
- ⏳ Data team
- ⏳ HubSpot consultant
- ⏳ Dev agency partner
Strategy (In Progress)
- ✅ AI strategy defined
- ⏳ Market validation pending
- ⏳ Financial model TBD
- ⏳ Tech stack decisions
CEO Decisions Needed
- 🔵 Approve Phase 1 (CHF 180K)
- 🔵 Confirm tech stack
- 🔵 Authorize CDO search
- 🔵 AI transparency policy
Frameworks Applied
MECE Structuring
4 transformation domains: Infrastructure, Organization, Market, Capital
Porter's Five Forces
Industry score 3.2/5; Tech-Culture-Finance nexus UNOCCUPIED
McKinsey 7S
Weighted score 3.7/10; Systems misaligned with ALL elements
Profitability
LF: 58% margin, 18:1 CLV:CAC; NH: 68% margin, 8.5:1 CLV:CAC
Issue Tree
Keystone blocker: CRM configuration and data structure
Hypothesis-Driven
8 hypotheses; 3 MUST validate: H1, H7, H8 (unit economics)
Risk-Adjusted
Phase 1 risk/reward: 30:1; post-scrutiny confidence: 65%
Framework Synthesis
5 findings with VERY HIGH confidence (5+ frameworks agree)
Key Hypotheses to Test
| Hypothesis | Status | Validation Method | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|
| H1: Tech-Culture-Finance nexus unoccupied in EU/MEA | Unvalidated | 20 UHNW interviews + competitive mapping | Critical |
| H7: Members joined for innovation/tech promise | Unvalidated | 30 current member interviews | Critical |
| H3: Abu Dhabi is the right expansion market | Testing | Market sizing + 15 UHNW interviews | High |
| H2: UHNW will pay premium for AI-augmented concierge | Unvalidated | Pilot with 10 Louis Fourteen families | High |
| H6: "Boutique > Scale" for luxury concierge | Strong Evidence | Quintessentially losses, UHNW preferences | Medium |
Expert Views
McKinsey Senior Partner
"Classic Vision-Execution Disconnect. The founders have articulated an inspiring destination, but the vehicle to get there hasn't been built. I've seen this pattern in 60% of transformation programs that fail."
Venture Capitalist
"What's the path to CHF 10M ARR? The document doesn't show me a revenue model I can underwrite. Recommend milestone-based investment tied to validation."
Chief Technology Officer
"The document mentions 'AI agents' but contains no data strategy. You cannot build AI on unstructured data. Step 0 is data architecture, not AI features."
Luxury Brand Strategist
"Under-promise, over-deliver for 18 months. Your brand equity is borrowed from the vision - it must be earned through experience. One mediocre event damages more than ten great ones repair."
Organizational Psychologist
"The team has 'expressed a strong need for proper tools.' This is latent readiness - they want to change but lack the means. This is actually positive: motivation exists."
AI/ML Architect
"The moat isn't AI - it's DATA. Every interaction Louis Fourteen captures becomes training data for an AI concierge no competitor can replicate. The CRM is the future valuation multiplier."
"The document is excellent strategic thinking. What's missing is the execution architecture to make it real."
Scenario Analysis
PHOENIX RISING
Strong execution + Validated demand
$100M+ valuation, global expansion
PRESTIGE PLATEAU
Strong execution + Lower demand
$10-20M value, Geneva institution
MISSED MOMENT
Weak execution + Market exists
Competitors capture opportunity
QUIET EXIT
Weak execution + No demand
Asset sale or wind-down
Phoenix Scenario Indicators
| Signal | Target | Timeline |
|---|---|---|
| Member NPS | > 70 | Month 12 |
| Corporate Sponsorships | 10+ | Month 12 |
| Abu Dhabi Pilot Unit Economics | Positive | Month 18 |
| Luxury Brand Partnership Requests | 3+ | Month 12 |
Projections
CHF 3.8M
CHF 5M Total
Per-Family Profitability
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Annual Retainer | CHF 25,000 |
| Transaction Volume | CHF 150,000/year |
| Commission (15%) | CHF 22,500 |
| Total Revenue/Family | CHF 47,500 |
| Cost to Serve | CHF 20,000 |
| Gross Profit/Family | CHF 27,500 (58%) |
| Breakeven Families | 11 |
Serendipity
"Not automation. Augmentation. Serendipity combines human expertise with AI superpowers: perfect memory, 24/7 availability, and proactive anticipation."
From Manual to Intelligent (36 Months)
Intelligent Client Memory
360° profiles, preference learning. Access context in 5 seconds vs 15 minutes. Phase 1-2.
AI-Assisted Research
Restaurant, flight, venue research automated. 3x throughput. Quick win - Phase 1.
24/7 AI Concierge Chat
WhatsApp-based, 70% instant replies, seamless human escalation. Phase 2.
Proactive Recommendations
Anticipate needs, birthday reminders, +25% revenue from proactive offers. Phase 2.
Predictive Service
Lifestyle pattern analysis, anticipatory offers. The concierge that knows you. Phase 3.
Agentic AI
End-to-end task completion. From recommendation to booking to confirmation. Phase 3.
Supplier Intelligence
Best supplier matching, pricing history, reliability scores. Phase 2.
Multi-Channel AI
Unified AI across WhatsApp, app, email, voice. Phase 3.
CHF 1.14M Total (3 Years)
| Category | Phase 1 | Phase 2 | Phase 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Technology (APIs, Licenses) | CHF 30K | CHF 80K | CHF 120K |
| Development (Custom) | CHF 50K | CHF 150K | CHF 200K |
| Team (CDO, Data) | CHF 60K | CHF 100K | CHF 150K |
| Phase Total | CHF 180K | CHF 400K | CHF 560K |
Recommended Stack
| Decision | Recommendation |
|---|---|
| CRM Platform | HubSpot (shared with Nowhere) |
| AI/LLM Provider | Claude API (Anthropic) |
| Client Interface | WhatsApp + Custom App |
| Build vs Buy | Hybrid (Buy CRM/LLM, Build custom) |
| Data Residency | Swiss-hosted, GDPR compliant |
Data is the Moat, Not AI
The competitive advantage isn't AI technology - it's proprietary data. Every interaction, preference, and request that Louis Fourteen captures becomes training data for an AI concierge no competitor can replicate.
The CRM is not a tool. It's the future valuation multiplier.
Expert Sources
"AI adoption by luxury houses set to accelerate over 12-24 months. Customer intimacy is the Holy Grail."
"2025 is the operationalization year for AI. Agentic AI will show real bottom-line impact."
AI in luxury: $1.2B → $5.6B by 2034 (16% CAGR). Luxury concierge: $643B → $1.48T by 2033.
Key Risks & Mitigations
| Risk | Probability | Impact | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|---|
| CDO hire fails/delays | Medium | Critical | Start search immediately, interim consultant option |
| UHNW clients reject AI | Medium | High | Always opt-in, human always available, transparent |
| Data quality issues | High | High | Dedicated cleanup phase, validation processes |
| Implementation delays | High | Medium | Agile approach, MVP focus, buffer in plan |
30-Day Priorities
Approve Phase 1 Budget (CHF 180K)
Enables all subsequent AI work. Decision needed: Week 1
Launch CDO/Tech Lead Search
Critical hire for AI execution. Start: Week 1, Target: Month 2
Confirm Technology Stack
HubSpot CRM, Claude API, WhatsApp. Decision: Week 2
Complete Data Audit
Map client data, assess quality, identify cleanup scope. By: Week 3
Draft AI Privacy Policy
GDPR/Swiss compliance, client consent, AI transparency. By: Week 4
Roadmap
Milestone-Based Investment
Go/No-Go Decision (Month 6)
| Metric | Target | Status |
|---|---|---|
| CDO/Tech Lead Hired | Yes | Pending |
| Member Interviews | 30 | 0/30 |
| CRM Configured | Yes | No |
| Signature Events | 3 | 0/3 |
| Member NPS | 50+ | Unknown |
| Abu Dhabi Validated | Yes | No |
| LF Pilot Families | 10 | Few |
Priority Actions
"Three things must happen in the next 90 days: Validate the market, hire a GM, and fix the CRM. Everything else depends on these three things working."
Immediate Actions
Launch GM Search
Finalize job spec, engage 2-3 executive search firms, activate network referrals
Schedule 30 Member Interviews
8 highly engaged, 8 moderate, 8 low/at-risk, 6 churned - validate H1 and H7
Complete CRM Audit
Assess HubSpot current state, document gaps, create configuration plan
Book Abu Dhabi Validation Trip
10 UHNW meetings, 3 venue visits, 2 partnership discussions
Founder Alignment Session
Confirm priorities, lock budget commitment, define governance structure
Top Risks & Mitigations
| Risk | Probability | Impact | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|---|
| GM hire fails/delays | Medium | Critical | Parallel search, interim consultant |
| Market validation negative | Medium | Critical | Pivot plan ready, don't over-invest |
| Member churn accelerates | Medium | High | Quick wins, communication, surveys |
| Tech implementation delays | High | Medium | Phased approach, MVP focus |
| Founder burnout | High | Critical | GM hire reduces operational burden |